epiEngage co-I meeting
Sebastian Funk
https://epiforecasts.io
https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/research/centres/centre-mathematical-modelling-infectious-diseases
Short-term forecasting can inform decision making
“We were losing ourselves in details […] all we needed to know is, are the number of cases rising, falling, or levelling off?”
– Hans Rosling, Liberia, 2014
“The Rt estimates generated by the EpiForecasts team were used extensively by the WHO COVID-19 Analytics unit. They formed a core part of two routine analysis pipelines […] regularly presented to the incident management structure at WHO headquarters, including senior management, as well as regional and national WHO offices.”
“An 80% right paper before a policy decision is made is worth ten 95% right papers afterwards, provided the methodological limitations imposed by doing it fast are made clear.” – Chris Whitty, former Chief Medical Officer